Trading Blog

The Markets This Week  May 21, 2017 - 1:57pm

The markets jumped into some real volatility last week and even though there was some pretty good buying after Wednesday's selling this could still go either way. The key level to watch on each chart is the high of Wednesday or basically gap resistance. That level on the SPY is 238.64, on the QQQ it sits at 138.77 and the IWM level is 137.04. the reason this is key is because a close over those levels indicates sellers have been beaten.

Autodesk Inc. (ADSK)  May 21, 2017 - 1:47pm

Autodesk Inc. shares jumped more than 14% Friday after the software company reported a narrower-than-expected adjusted loss in the fiscal first quarter and higher sales. Autodesk said it lost $129.6 million, or 59 cents a share, in the quarter, compared with a loss of $167.7 million, or 75 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Adjusted for one-time items, Autodesk reported a loss of 16 cents a share, compared with a loss of 10 cents a share a year ago. Revenue reached $486 million, down 5% from last year. Analysts polled by FactSet had expected an adjusted loss of 23 cents a share on sales of $470 million. The company called for fiscal second-quarter sales between $488 million and $500 million and a per-share GAAP loss between 66 cents and 60 cents. On the weekly chart there is some resistance at 113.5.

Deere & Co. (DE)  May 21, 2017 - 1:28pm

Shares of Deere & Co. were up 7.3% Friday after the agriculture and construction machinery company reported fiscal second-quarter results that were well above expectations and provided an upbeat outlook. Net income for the quarter to April 30 rose to $802.4 million, or $2.49 a share, from $495.4 million, or $1.56 a share, in the same period a year ago. The FactSet consensus for earnings per share was $1.63. Total revenue increased to $8.29 billion from $7.88 billion, beating the FactSet consensus of $8.02 billion, as financial and other revenue were better than expected while agriculture and turf and construction and forestry revenue were in line with forecasts. For 2017, Deere now expects company equipment sales to increase 9%, compared with previous guidance of 4% growth. "This resilience illustrates our success driving improved operating efficiencies and developing a wider range of revenue sources. It also shows the impact of the company's consistent investments in advanced technology, new products and additional markets," said Chief Executive Samuel Allen. The weekly chart shows room to 131 at the 161.8 extension.

Ross Stores Inc. (ROST)  May 21, 2017 - 1:25pm

Shares of Ross Stores Inc. were up 1.85% Friday after the retailer reported first-quarter earnings above expectations and sales that met expectations Thursday after the bell. Ross said it earned $321 million, or 82 cents a share, in the fiscal first quarter, compared with $291 million, or 73 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Sales rose 7% to $3.3 billion, the company said, while comparable-store sales were up 3%. Analysts polled by FactSet had expected Ross to report per-share earnings of 80 cents a share on sales of $3.27 billion. Ross said it expects same-store sales to be up 1% to 2% in the second quarter, and earnings per share of 73 cents to 76 cents for the quarter. The company forecast full-year earnings to range between $3.07 to $3.17 a share, compared to $2.83 a share last year. To avoid this downtrend from continuing it has to get through 63.91.

The Markets This Week  May 14, 2017 - 2:19pm

The SPY is sputtering at the 240.32 breakout level and the IWM keeps pounding against support between 136.77 and 137.73 while the QQQ just keeps going up. The question is what does this mean for stocks. For certain most stocks will breakout  if the SPY makes a move, however, as long as it doesn't break down we can still trade our setups that just don't seem to care what the markets do without worries of the markets dragging them down.

Apple Inc. (AAPL)  May 14, 2017 - 2:12pm

Apple Inc.'s price target was increased to $170 from $164 at Goldman Sachs on Friday, with analysts projecting Apple will unveil its first $1,000 iPhone in September. The pricier phones - a 128 gigabyte model priced at $999 and a 256 gigabyte model for $1,099 -- could rocket average selling prices and gross margins, helping to "drive meaningful upside" to the stock, according to the analysts, who reiterated a buy rating in a note to clients. The brokerage increased its 2018 and 2019 earnings estimates to reflect the upbeat outlook. The 160 level is the next target here.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN)  May 14, 2017 - 2:07pm

Wynn Resorts Ltd. shares rose 2.5% Friday to lead S&P 500 gainers, after Barclays upgraded the stock to the equivalent of buy, citing positive news coming from Macau and Las Vegas. Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight and raised its price to $144, equal to 13% upside from current levels. Wynn Resorts beat profit estimates by about 30% in its latest quarter, and beat sales estimates by 5.5%, according to FactSet. Revenue from its Las Vegas operations rose 6% from the year-earlier period, while casino revenues were up 3.3%. In Macau, net revenues fell 3.5%, while casino revenues were down 3%. But Macau is expected to continue a recovery that began last August with the opening of Wynn's new Palace casino, which is credited with bringing VIP high-rollers back. Macau has posted nine straight months of higher gambling revenues, according to the Macau Gaming Inspection & Coordination Bureau. If WYNN breaks out here look for 131 as your first target.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)  May 14, 2017 - 1:26pm

Amazon.com Inc. wants to furnish your home. The online retail giant is making a major push into furniture and appliances, including building at least four massive warehouses focused on fulfilling and delivering bulky items, according to people familiar with Amazon’s plans. With that move, the Seattle-based retailer is taking on the two companies that dominate online furniture sales—Wayfair Inc. and Pottery Barn owner Williams-Sonoma Inc. Furniture is one of the fastest-growing segments of U.S. online retail, growing 18% in 2015, second only to groceries, according to Barclays. About 15% of the $70 billion U.S. furniture market has moved online, researcher IBISWorld says. But even the biggest players in online furniture are struggling to get the market right. Unlike established categories such as books and music or even apparel, retailers are still hammering out basic concepts like how much variety to offer on their sites and the most efficient ways to deliver couches and dining sets to customers’ homes. AMZN is breaking out again with a first target at 973.

The Markets This Week  May 7, 2017 - 1:02pm

On Friday the SPY notched its best closing high since March 1 of this year and loos poised to make a move. The QQQ is also pushing at new highs and the IWM bounced nicely at the 50% retracement zone. The markets could be ready for a pretty good move higher this week. The key level to watch on the SPY is 240.32 - if it pushes through there it could make a run to 244.

Chesapeake Energy (CHK)  May 7, 2017 - 12:53pm

Shares of Chesapeake Energy Corp. jumped 6.4% Friday as analysts weighing in on first-quarter earnings were mostly upbeat. The stock was battered Thursday by a sharp slide in oil prices and a miss on production that overshadowed consensus-beating earnings. Wunderlich analysts said the quarter was solid, pricing was strong and costs continued to trend lower. "While a relatively quiet quarter for CHK in terms of financial and operational moves, there were some nice positive incremental oil well results that should help drive CHK's oil weighting higher as it shifts to growth in 2H16," they wrote in a note. Wunderlich rates the stock a buy with a $10 price target, equal to 84% upside from current trading levels. SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analysts said the company is moving forward with plans to pay down debt and improve liquidity. Patience is still needed but a strong 2017 exit is likely, they wrote in a note. SunTrust rates the stock buy with a $9 price target. Assuming this has put in a bottom it needs to get through 5.98 to break this recent downtrend.

Zynga Inc. (ZNGA)  May 7, 2017 - 12:47pm

Zynga Inc. slightly beat earnings expectations with a Thursday report, and shares jumped about 7% in late trading. The social-gaming company reported a net loss of $9.5 million, or a penny a share, on revenue of $194.3 million, with sales gaining 4% from a year ago. Analysts on average expected a loss of 2 cents a share on sales of $192.6 million, according to FactSet. ZNGA broke a key resistance level at 3.00 that has been in place for almost 3 years.

International Business Machines (IBM)  May 7, 2017 - 12:42pm

IBM’s woes are mounting, as billionaire Warren Buffett said Thursday his company has sold about a third of its stake in the computing giant after losing confidence in it. Buffett told CNBC that Berkshire Hathaway Inc. owned about 81 million shares of International Business Machines Corp. at the and of 2016, but has dumped about 30 million shares so far this year. “I don’t value IBM the same way that I did six years ago when I started buying,” Buffett told CNBC. “I’ve revalued it somewhat downward.” Berkshire at one point was IBM’s largest stakeholder, with about a $13 billion stake. But Buffett told CNBC the stock’s performance was not what he expected, and that the company had “run into is some pretty tough competitors.” Buffett said he is done selling the stock. This news did not help the stock price as it dropped to almost a 6-month low after already taking a hit on the last earnings report.

The Markets This Week  April 30, 2017 - 2:42pm

The SPY made a pretty good move early last week but ended the week sideways. Overall as long as 236.50 holds keep your bullish frame of mind.The QQQ keeps running and I am looking for this to pull back to at least 135 if not a little lower. The IWM was the biggest decliner Friday and could visit 137.5.

GoPro Inc. (GPRO)  April 30, 2017 - 2:25pm

Shares of GoPro Inc.dropped 7.72% Friday after the action camera maker reported better-than-expected first-quarter results and second-quarter outlook on Thursday. The net loss widened to $111.2 million, or 78 cents a share, from $107.5 million, or 78 cents a share, in the same period a year ago. Excluding non-recurring items, the adjusted per-share loss was 44 cents, compared with the FactSet loss per share of 45 cents. Revenue rose 19% to $218.6 million from $183.5 million, beating the FactSet consensus of $208.1 million. The company said non-U.S. markets generated 60% of first-quarter revenue. For the current quarter, GoPro expects revenue of $270 million, plus or minus $10 million, well above the FactSet consensus of $243 million. "GoPro is executing a turnaround," said Founder and Chief Executive Nicholas Woodman. "We had a great first quarter and feel good about our outlook for the second quarter." 

Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)  April 30, 2017 - 2:22pm

Starbucks Corp. shares dropped 2.02% Friday after the coffee chain matched Wall Street earnings estimates in its report Thursday but fell short of consensus revenue targets. The company reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of 45 cents a share on revenue of $5.29 billion. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast earnings of 45 cents a share on revenue of $5.42 billion. It could bounce if 59.17 holds.